MVA's endgame? Here's what the data suggest as the Shiv Sena prepares for a vertical split

Despite intervention from Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and his wife Rashmi to quash the mutiny, the Shiv Sena is heading towards a vertical split in the aftermath of the rebellion staged by veteran party leader and minister Eknath Shinde and 36 legislators. Despite the Shiv Sena's claim that Team Shinde lacks the necessary numbers to arrange a split, the latter has reportedly been in contact with the BJP to shore up the legislators in order to avoid prosecution under the anti-defection statute.

 

Shiv Sena has 54 MLAs in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, as one of their legislators, Ramesh Latke, just died, NCP (53), Congress (44), Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (three), Samajwadi Party, AIMIM, and Prahar Janshakti Party each have two. Each of the  following parties has one MLA: MNS, CPI-M, PWP, Swabhimani Paksha, Rashtriya Samaj Party, Jansurajya Shakti Party, and Krantikari Shetkari Paksha. There are thirteen independent MLAs.

 

The BJP will have 114 legislators with the backing of seven independents and one MNS legislator. In the Rajya Sabha election, the party received 123 votes and 134 votes in the state council election. To prove a majority in the state legislature, 30 legislators must cross the halfway threshold of 144. According to a senior BJP official, "The strategy to entice Shiv Sena legislators has developed four months ago, with the approval of the BJP's central leadership. It was decided to take advantage of MVA's internal contradictions in order to entice Shinde and other disgruntled Shiv Sena legislators. The BJP is sure that Team Shinde will achieve 36 members."

 

Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut has ruled out the BJP's 'Operation Lotus' in Maharashtra, implying that the government will survive the current political turmoil. Surprisingly, the BJP has taken a wait-and-see approach. State BJP president Chandrakant Patil stated that commenting on Eknath Shinde's involvement now would be premature. He is the Shiv Sena's legislative group leader. Their role and the circumstances it has produced are internal problems for that party. The BJP has not made any proposals to Shinde, nor has he made any to form a government.

 

Many Shiv Sena legislators believe they will not be heard if the Shiv Sena maintains its alliance with the NCP and Congress, he said. Leaders of the NCP and Congress, the MVA's other constituents, claimed that there is no threat to the state government's stability. Following the catastrophic defeat of its candidate Chandrakant Handore in the state council election, the Congress party emphasised that all 44 members were in constant communication and rejected rumours that at least 5 were not approachable.

 

 

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