Inside the Victory: How BJP and Its Allies Managed to Dominate Maharashtra’s Political Battlefield

by Webdesk
15 Sep 2025

How the BJP Alliance Secured Victory in Maharashtra

Last week, HT carried an analysis of the elector count in Maharashtra as well as other states, highlighting that the changes in voter numbers between the 2024 Lok Sabha and subsequent assembly elections in the state were not unusual when compared with other regions. Despite this, the Congress party has consistently claimed that Maharashtra’s shift—from the MVA’s (Congress, Shiv Sena-UBT, and NCP-SP alliance) impressive Lok Sabha performance to a steep defeat in the assembly polls six months later—was the result of large-scale tampering of electoral rolls.

While these allegations continue, the larger issue is still unanswered: what exactly explains the decisive win of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP alliance (Mahayuti) in the recent assembly elections? To address this, we need to examine both the broader patterns and the constituency-level data.

Divergence Between National and State Polls

It is not unusual for election results to differ between national and state-level contests held within months of each other. Maharashtra has been a prime example of this. The BJP-Shiv Sena partnership dominated the state in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, winning 42 and 41 of 48 parliamentary constituencies. Yet, in the assembly elections of the same years, outcomes shifted significantly. In 2014, all major parties contested separately, while in 2019, despite contesting together, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance fared much worse than their Lok Sabha performance.

This phenomenon is not unique to Maharashtra. In 19 large states of India, with seven or more parliamentary constituencies, there have been 44 pairs of Lok Sabha and assembly elections from 2014 up to the 2025 Delhi state polls. In nearly half (20) of these instances, the alliance winning a majority at the national level lost it at the state level. In 12 of these 20 cases, it was the BJP and its allies that failed to maintain their parliamentary dominance in state contests.

The Most Polarised Elections Since 1972

The 2024 Maharashtra assembly polls were marked as the most polarised state election since 1972. The Effective Number of Participants (ENOP)—a measure of vote distribution—stood at 2.34, the lowest since 1972. A lower ENOP indicates heavy vote concentration behind fewer players.

Moreover, only 93 constituencies had a “spoiler candidate” (one who secured more votes than the margin of victory), the lowest since 1972. Much of this consolidation went in favor of the Mahayuti, which boosted its vote share from 42.2% in 2019 (BJP + Shiv Sena) to 48.2% in 2024 (with the NCP included), rising further to 51.4% with smaller allies. The MVA, by contrast, largely retained its earlier vote share but won significantly fewer seats—an outcome of India’s first-past-the-post system which disproportionately rewards the leading side once it crosses a vote threshold.

National-Regional Power Balance

Maharashtra’s politics has long been defined by coalitions of national and regional forces. Since 1990, no single party has governed alone. Between 1999 and 2009, Congress allied with the NCP while BJP joined hands with the Shiv Sena. In 2014, each major party contested solo; BJP emerged as the single largest with 122 MLAs but had to ally with Shiv Sena post-polls. In 2019, the alliance fractured when Shiv Sena demanded the chief minister’s chair, leading to a political crisis.

The 2024 results show a dramatic reversal of fortunes. The BJP and its allies flipped the numbers from 79-63 in the 2024 Lok Sabha (assembly-level tally) to 132-16 in the assembly elections. Pro-BJP factions of the NCP and Shiv Sena further strengthened the coalition’s hold, while pro-Congress groups weakened, deepening the MVA’s decline.

Congress’s Decline Hits Rock Bottom

Congress’s long-term decline in Maharashtra reached a new low in 2024. Historically, even when forming governments (1999, 2004, 2009), the party never crossed 100 MLAs. In contrast, the BJP has consistently achieved this mark since 2014. By 2019, Congress had slipped to fourth place in vote and seat share despite its NCP alliance. But the 2024 elections proved to be its weakest showing yet.

The party lost nine constituencies it had held in both 2014 and 2019—such as Akkalkuwa, Teosa, Deoli, Savner, Igatpuri, Bhor, Sangamner, Latur Rural, and Solapur City Central. In each case, factors such as poor local management, defections, and strong BJP candidates played key roles.

Pawar Family Dynamics

The Pawar family split reshaped Maharashtra politics. Ajit Pawar’s 2023 defection to join BJP and Shiv Sena altered power equations. Though his wife Sunetra Pawar lost to Supriya Sule in Baramati during the Lok Sabha polls, Ajit bounced back in the assembly elections. Mahayuti captured all six Baramati ACs, and Ajit himself won with a commanding 66.1% vote share. The episode underscored how Ajit enjoys wider loyalty among state-level leaders, even though Sharad Pawar retains national stature.

The Larger Lesson

The Mahayuti’s win was less about electoral rolls and more about organisational strength, voter consolidation, and the ability to manage local contradictions. Congress, instead of introspection, continues to focus on alleged voter list manipulation. Yet, history shows that without fixing internal weaknesses, factional rivalries, and poor candidate choices, no alliance can challenge BJP’s disciplined election machinery.

As political commentator Walter Lippmann once said: “In politics, there is no concluding chapter. There is only more politics.” Maharashtra’s 2024 assembly verdict is a fresh chapter—one written by alliances, defections, and organisational might, not electoral rolls.

Image Courtesy:

02 Jan 2026

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Inside the Victory: How BJP and Its Allies Managed to Dominate Maharashtra’s Political Battlefield

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